NASCAR: The More Things Change, The More They Stay The Same

Hello again gentle readers. Yes, I know that it has been a long time since I graced this blog with my presences, however, sometimes, life intrudes. Another reason that I have not written much is because I am a college basketball fan first and foremost, and a simple look at the calender will tell you that my preferred season is long over. Hence, I am writing about the sport that is coming to be the one that I know the next most about - NASCAR. The last time that I wrote about the cars was back in March and quite a bit has happened since then, even though you would be hard pressed to recognize this by looking at the standings.

When the season started in Daytona, it looked as if Dodge had finally figured out the aerodynamic problems that had hindered its stable of teams and drivers for the past three years and would put multiple cars and teams in the chase. Well, that little viewpoint has proven to be short lived. I write this the day after the running of the Coca-Cola 600, and a Dodge just won the race. If not for that, there would not have been another Dodge victory since Daytona. Regardless of yesterday's victory, things have been looking awful for the Dodge's this year. Neither Kyle Busch nor Eliot Sadler have been able to get into the top 20 in the rankings, Ryan Newman has done a freefall (not as fast as Kurt's, but almost) from the top spot at Daytona to out of the chase and Kasey Kahne joined the chase yesterday with his win. From what I hear and read, the problem is that Dodge can't figure out the aero package on their cars. Dodge has plenty of horsepower, but the cars can't stay under control at high speeds in the turns. This requires the drivers to slow down earlier than they should on the straightaways to keep from wrecking. This is a massive problem for Dodge, and not in the way that you may have initially thought. This problem can probably be fixed from an engineering standpoint, but it could be fatal to the manufacturer from a driver standpoint. Some of the best drivers for Dodge will be coming upon the ends of their contracts soon and they may not be willing to stay and wait for Dodge to fix this problem when it looks as if some spots are opening with other teams and other manufacturers. Ryan Newman will be the first driver of any significance for Dodge that will face this decision. If he leaves, you could see the floodgates open behind him.

Where would the Rocketman go? That is not a bad question, so let's take a look at what is out there. Frankly, a new team is about to be created at Richard Childress Racing and that will be a hot ride with a big sponsor since General Mills foods is coming on board. If you are Newman and you see that all of Childress' cars are currently in the chase (solidly I might add) this would look like a pretty good option. Roush racing will probably not be an option since it currently has five teams and NASCAR rules will force it to go to four teams next year. At the beginning of the year anyone asked would have believed that David Ragan would be on the way out. Now, with Ragan on the cusp of the chase, you have to think that the underperforming Jamie McMurray will be looking for a ride. Over at Toyota, Joe Gibbs doesn't have a spot unless Tony Stewart leaves to buy part of Haas-CNC Racing or they add another team. Frankly, I don't see Stewart leaving just yet and I don't see another team coming (although Toyota would give these guys anything that they want at this point). If Newman stays, it may not say anything about where the Dodge's are heading, but if he leaves when there are no other great rides but one out there, then it will say something loud and clear to everyone about the Dodges.

Speaking of loud and clear, the only way you could have missed the fact that Toyota and Joe Gibbs Racing have teamed up is if you have not watched any races this season. This alliance has all three teams it runs in the chase and has led more laps and won more races than any other team so far this year. While they have not won as many races as the Hendricks team did last year at this point, it can be argued that they have been more dominant due to the number of laps lead, which is double the next highest team. Also, remember that Tony Stewart, the two-time champ has not won a race yet and is still in eighth place in points. He has won all of his races but one after May in the past, so his best races are still ahead. With the exception of the first three races when Denny Hamlin had some problems (which he has overcome to rise to fourth in points) the Toyotas of Gibbs have been better cars than anything else on the tracks. Plus, Kyle Busch has shown that Hendricks never should have cut him to make room for Junior, but should have shown Casey Mears the tickets to a truck or Nationwide car instead.

Having said all of this, where are we? Well, you have the three Toyotas of Gibbs in the chase, but this is not really a surprise. Gibbs is a quality outfit and these guys would have been there if they were still in Chevys. Childress has three cars in the chase along with Hendricks. Roush has two (maybe not the exact two you expected, but two nevertheless) and Dodge has one (barely). So, this year's Chase is looking alot like last year's chase judging by the competitors. At the moment, the eventual champ does not look like it will be Jimmy Johnson again as his team looks like they took the offseason off and celebrated instead of preparing. However, when you consider that Gibbs and Hendricks have had the championship six of the past eight years, I have not seen anything so far this season that will change that dominance.