Now that we are getting closer to one of the best annual sporting events, March Madness, it is not too early to begin our conversation about it. While most want to talk about "Bubble" teams, I want to discuss the higher seeds and one in particular. Without major shocking developments, the top four seeds will likely be one of these eight teams: Tennessee, Memphis, Duke, UNC, Texas, Kansas, Xavier or UCLA.
Top seeds speak for themselves and have always made it to the Round of 32. However, it is the 2 seeds that may prove exciting this year. The number 2 seed that no one wants to play right now is not Memphis, Duke or Kansas. I submit it is Xavier. The Musketeers have won ten in a row against the best in the A-10 (which is better than you think this year) including at Rhode Island and at Dayton this past week. They have won 16 of their last 17. They do not rely on one player, or just shooting the three. In fact, they go about ten deep and have six players who average scoring in double figures. They have a young coach in Sean Miller who can recruit and who is now being rumored for the IU job. Why not? The last successful Xavier coach, Thad Matta, also left for the Big Ten.
Xavier is a tough out. Don't forget that Xavier always seems to play well in the Tourney. They made the Sweet 16 for the first time back in 1990 and lost to Texas. They made the Elite 8 in 2004, losing to Duke in a great game. Last year they lost at the last second to Ohio State. In fact, they have only lost to a 1 or 2 seed each time in the Tourney since 1993, with the exception of Maryland in 2003 who was a 6 seed.
So, if Xavier is named a 2 seed, think again before you say that Regional bracket is the easiest. They may just end-up being the X Factor in San Antonio.
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Honestly, I like Xavier's chances in the tournament better than either Tennessee's or Memphis even though the Vols and Tigers will probably get #1 seeds while the Musketeers will be at most a #2 and could very well end up a #3 if the committee decides to go on a random mid-major punishing tangent, as it is wont to do every few years.
One thing that stood out at the end of the UT-Memphis game the other night was the Tigers' complete helplessness at the free-throw line. It's fine to play C-USA games at a breakneck pace, jack up 30 or so three-pointers and just try to out-score people, but in the NCAAs, you have to be able to make your foul shots, particularly if you're a team that gives up as many fouls as Memphis does. In a close game with a team like UCLA or Kansas or Xavier, I think this is a weakness that can very easily be exploited. Even a much weaker team could potentially take advantage of the Tigers if they had enough bodies to start hacking them in the waning minutes of the first half and then again at the end of the game. I think this strategy might work, but there's probably not a team or coach with the intestinal fortitude to attempt using it since it flies in the face of conventional wisdom, so we'll likely never know. Making free throws may be, as Calipari claimed this weekend, number 26 on the list of the top 25 things Memphis needs to do to win, but I have a feeling that attitude's going to come back to haunt them.
Similarly, Tennessee's inability to guard anyone in a half court set for more than 15 seconds makes me feel like they're very vulnerable in the tournament, when the games tighten up and possessions become precious. Memphis and Kentucky have showed in the last two months that Chris Lofton can be neutralized if the opponent wants to take him out badly enough and the Vols don't have another player who really can carry the offense in the halfcourt. I think this makes certain types of opponents very dangerous for them.
One could also say that Xavier choked in their chance on the big stage last year when they had the chance to knock out Ohio State. I think they're a good team (they must be...they beat my Hoosiers) and they've done the most important thing a mid-major can do: secure a high seed. Their balance and experience will make them a tough out in March.
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